چکیده

With COVID-19 and its variants still of concern globally, researchers continue to develop mathematical models to capture the dynamics of the spread of the infection. Many of these models utilize a compartmental framework of sub-populations. The typical categories include, but are not limited to, susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered populations. These SEIR compartmental models are used widely to model infectious diseases such as Zika, Dengue, and COVID-19. These models typically vary in the types of compartments utilized as well as a plethora of parameters. While current research suggests that COVID-19 spreads through the interactions of multiple populations with one another, several of these models may not fully account for such interactions. For instance, there is evidence that multiple variants of the COVID-19 virus impact these sub-populations differently. In this paper, we introduce a new multi-variant COVID-19 model that will help provide insight into the dynamics of the spread of infections. Specifically, the dynamics of the sub-populations are modeled through a coupled system of ordinary differential equations. The basic reproduction number for this model is derived that can potentially inform policy makers to make data-driven decisions. We also perform simulations to study the influence of various parameters employed in the model.

کليدواژه ها

COVID, Epidemiology, Compartmental models, Reproduction Number, Variants

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Padmanabhan Seshaiyer , 1400 , Modeling and Analysis of the Spread of COVID-19 with simultaneous Variants of Concern , نخستین همایش بین المللی و سومین همایش ملی ریاضیات زیستی